Big League Chatter

The expectations for the 2008 Toronto Blue Jays would likely be higher if they played in a division that did not include the resource-rich Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Nonetheless, many see the Blue Jays as a wild card contender this season.

To contend, they will need to realize a much greater return on their investment of a massive 7-year, $126 million dollar contract with center fielder Vernon Wells in 2006. Wells was a huge disappointment in 2007 hitting just .245 with 18 home runs and 80 runs batted in. His .706 OPS was his worst since 1999. National broadcaster Chip Caray noted earlier this season that Wells played through a balky shoulder injury in 2007 and kept it quiet. Jays’ fans are hoping for a return to health and to form for their cornerstone player.

With future Hall-of-Famer Frank Thomas recently released, indications are that veteran Matt Stairs (and aging OF Shannon Stewart to a lesser degree) will get the majority of at-bats as Toronto’s DH. Though there is something to be said for Stairs’ veteran presence and left-handed power, I would like to see the  Jays give a younger player with more upside a shot at this role. Another option may be to allow new addition David Eckstein to DH against left-handers and play the defensively superior John McDonald at shortstop (see below). Youngster Adam Lind will split time with Stewart in LF while five-tool talent Alex Rios patrols RF. Up-and-comer Aaron Hill is the 2B and veteran 1B Lyle Overbay rounds out the right side of the infield. Hill, the former LSU Tiger standout, batted .291 last season with 17 home runs and 78 RBI while playing 160 games. Veterans Greg Zaun and Rod Barajas will likely split the catching duties. Veteran utility man Marco Scutaro provides value depth off the bench.

Toronto has a new left side of the infield in 2008, swapping third basemen with the St. Louis Cardinals this winter with a Troy Glaus-for-Scott Rolen exchange and signing veteran free agent shortstop David Eckstein to a one-year contract.

Though the newcomers bring championship experience with them north of the border, they also bring deteriorating skills and injury concerns. Rolen has not been the same player offensively since injuring his shoulder in a May 2005 collision with Dodgers’ first baseman Hee-Seop Choi. Despite rebounding to have a solid 2006 season and proving to be a large contributor to the Cardinals’ championship run, his power has been largely diminished as a result of continuing shoulder woes. Rolen suffered another setback this spring, fracturing his right middle finger during fielding drills and missed the first month of the regular season. Expect his defense at the hot corner to remain at an elite level for at least a few more seasons. The 2006 World Series MVP Eckstein has played no more than 123 games in any of the past two seasons. The former University of Florida walk-on has long compensated for inferior range and arm strength with outstanding instincts and effort. However, at age 33 the weaknesses are becoming more notable as he committed a career-high 20 errors last season and his .960 fielding percentage was the worst since his rookie year. It remains to be seen how much the faster-playing artificial surface in Toronto will hamper Eckstein’s ability to play what is arguably the most difficult position in the game. This signing is a rather curious one considering he will  supplant one of the league’s best defensive shortstops in John McDonald as the starter. For shortstops who played at least the 799 innings that McDonald played in 2007, only Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki had a better range factor and only the Giants’ Omar Vizquel had a better zone rating.

The best move of the Jays’ off-season may very well have been one they didn’t make. There were talks with the San Francisco Giants during the winter meetings involving a potential trade of all-star Alex Rios to the west coast for young starting pitcher Matt Cain. The Jays wisely moved on to asking for ace-in-the-making Tim Lincecum (rather than Cain) in return for Rios but the deal fell through. There is no denying Lincecum’s ability and bright future but the logic of trading a star everyday player for one who can contribute only every fifth day does not add up in my opinion and apparently general manager J.P. Ricciardi shares my view.

The starting rotation is arguably the strength of this roster anyway, largely contributing to the third-best WHIP (1.32) in all of MLB last season. With one of the more underrated aces in baseball, Roy Halladay, leading the way, the Jays will trot out a very formidable 2-3-4 in A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum. The fifth starter, Jesse Litsch, has gone 3-1 to open the season. If Halladay, who made just 40 starts in 2004 and 2005 combined before pitching over 220 innings in each of the past two seasons, and the oft-injured Burnett can stay healthy, this could be one of the top rotations in the A.L. Unfortunately for this group, they will be pitching to devastating divisional lineups in Boston and New York, not to mention the upstart Tampa Bay Rays and surprising (first place of this writing) Baltimore Orioles.

The back end of the bullpen should be strong regardless of how quickly closer B.J. Ryan recovers from Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for nearly all of last season. That’s because setup man Jeremy Accardo had a solid season filling in for Ryan in 2007, notching 30 saves while posting a 2.14 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Opponents batted just .206 against the righthander. Expect manager John Gibbons to leverage this success and utilize Accardo if Ryan falters or simply to provide rest for the recovering 32 year-old. After an extended spring training and minor league rehab assignment, Ryan has made it back to the big club and notched his first save of the season on April 13. If Ryan can regain the dominating form he knew prior to the injury, opponents better figure out a way to beat the Jays in the first seven innings before these two slam the door. Lefty Scott Downs and righty Jason Frasor lead the middle relief effort.

Health and the resurgence of Vernon Wells are two keys for the Jays’ 2008 campaign. Toronto needs to stay relatively injury-free and also have a few key players in Boston and New York miss some time to make a run in the A.L. east. Let’s see if they can capitalize on Alex Rodriguez’s trip to the 15-day DL over the next two weeks. Wells must be a force in the middle of the lineup and play an above average center field if the Jays have a chance to make their first playoff appearance since 1993.